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Red Sox employ loophole to MLB shift ban against Joey Gallo The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. The 2023 series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. As can always be said when writing about a small sample: What we have here is something to monitor. Dec 11 2015 Signed an 8 year $184 million contract with Chicago (CHC) Nov 15 2015 Player declined $15.8 million qualiying offer. Its not even clear this would be a good thing. Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, by Retrosheet. The group as a whole averaged nearly four wins per season from age 26 through age 30, which would be a very good result for Jason Heyward. Just a couple years ago, it was Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton that were tearing up baseball, looking like an unprecedented pair of rookie talents ready to continue on into the stratosphere together. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Apparently the Dodgers will do anything to keep James Outman on the farm. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. Juan Soto already benefiting big from new MLB rule FanGraphs Shirts. This group also aged incredibly well. The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. ESPN rated the oufielder 11th in the system, Baseball America had him 12th, and The Athletic rated De Paula 18th. Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. The next group of comps considers only offensive production. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Consider this an expansion on Matt Klaasens crowning of Jason Heyward as the King oF Little Things if you will. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. Their average WAR is below. If you can sign him without an opt-out, you might be in the rare position of having an 8- or 10-year megadeal where the player is worth his salary every year. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. Buy Low on Jason Heyward | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heres a powerful triple to center. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. Heyward is not Trout-level amazing, but he has been incredibly productive through his age-25 season. FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? Braves news: Surprise candidate emerges for potential rotation spot Depending on ones point of view, it was an effort that was either an improvement in his development as a still-young hitter or a disturbing blight on his future value. Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. . He went first to home on a double six of nine times, which is about average. When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The Pirates suggested that Oviedo begin throwing a sinker because his four-seam fastball naturally sinks. Signup . Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. by Retrosheet. Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. But as long as were just having fun here, consider a few numbers. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. I dont want to start my first game of Spring Training going 3-0 on a guy or nibbling. Heres a bomb to right-center. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and that's not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Gallo got the upper hand on the Red Sox in his second inning at-bat, drawing a walk to nullify Boston's shift. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. Jason Heyward - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . Perhaps its fitting, if random, that Heywards most recent highlights on MLB.com are all home-run-saving catches. by Retrosheet. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Teams should, and likely do, look at adding years to a contract as spreading out money over a longer time period rather than seeking an extra year of value. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed Jason Heyward Minor & Fall Leagues Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com His 2012 projections are strong Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. . He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. Age is the decisive factor here. The former Yankees and Rangers first baseman topped out at 97 mph from the left side and struck out the first batter he faced swinging on an offspeed pitch. Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. Higgins over one inning. Ideally, we could look for players like Jason Heyward who are good offensively and defensively and see how those players performed. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. Carpenter upped his power output, and his grounder pull rate jumped from 53% to 68%. But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. by Retrosheet. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. "I've talked . This spring, Heyward has hit 17 grounders, and hes pulled all but one of them. Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. by Retrosheet. Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks game thread - True Blue LA And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but its important to remember that hes still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Cubs, Heyward Agree To $184 Million, Eight-Year Deal He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. Jason Heyward Stats, Fantasy & News | MiLB.com I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. The Fascinating Jason Heyward Contract | FanGraphs Baseball As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. It really had good numbers on the computer. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. I think thats in the ballpark. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . . The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities.